šŸ’° Financial Performance

Revenue Growth by Segment

India Upstream Aluminium revenue grew 10% YoY in Q2 FY26, while Copper revenue grew 12% YoY to INR 14,886 Cr in Q1 FY26. India Aluminium segment revenue increased 19% YoY to INR 51,087 Cr in FY25.

Geographic Revenue Split

Novelis (International) contributed over 60% of consolidated EBITDA in FY23 and FY24, and more than 45% in the first nine months of FY25. India operations account for the remaining share.

Profitability Margins

Consolidated PAT grew 21% YoY to INR 4,741 Cr in Q2 FY26. India business PAT rose 7% YoY to INR 3,059 Cr. H1 FY26 ROCE stood at 19.6%.

EBITDA Margin

India Upstream Aluminium EBITDA margin was 45% in Q2 FY26. India business EBITDA rose 15% YoY to INR 5,419 Cr. Novelis adjusted EBITDA per ton was $506 in Q2 FY26.

Capital Expenditure

Planned growth capex of $10 billion (approx. INR 83,000 Cr) for FY26-FY29. H1 FY26 capex was INR 11,330 Cr, up 23% YoY. FY25 capex was approximately INR 17,400 Cr.

Credit Rating & Borrowing

CRISIL A1+ reaffirmed for commercial paper; CARE AA+ Stable for long-term facilities. Novelis bond issuance coupon was 6.375%, while Hindalco aims to raise $750 million debt at lower rates via AV Minerals.

āš™ļø Operational Drivers

Raw Materials

Alumina (surplus capacity), Aluminium scrap (impacting Novelis margins), and Copper concentrate (TC/RC dependent).

Import Sources

Domestic sourcing for alumina via Utkal Alumina; international sourcing for copper concentrate and aluminium scrap for Novelis operations in the US and Europe.

Key Suppliers

Not disclosed in available documents beyond internal sourcing from subsidiaries like Utkal Alumina International Ltd.

Capacity Expansion

None

Raw Material Costs

Aluminium scrap costs resulted in moderation of Novelis margins to $400/t in 9M FY25 from $510/t in FY24. India business benefits from 100% captive raw material support.

Manufacturing Efficiency

India Upstream Aluminium EBITDA per ton of $1,521 in Q2 FY26. Novelis maintains EBITDA per ton above $500 on an underlying basis.

šŸ“ˆ Strategic Growth

Expected Growth Rate

3-4%

Growth Strategy

Execution of the $10 billion growth capex plan, including the Bay Minette project in the US to address a 400-500 kt short-fall in can sheet. India expansion includes a 0.85 MTPA greenfield alumina project and downstream capacity augmentation.

Products & Services

Aluminium flat-rolled products (40% domestic market share), beverage packaging, automotive aluminium sheets, copper cathodes, and specialty alumina.

Brand Portfolio

Hindalco, Novelis, Utkal Alumina.

New Products/Services

Expansion into high-margin downstream products and circular solutions with a target of 75% average recycled content by 2030.

Market Expansion

Targeting US beverage packaging and automotive markets via Bay Minette; expanding Indian downstream capacity 4x by FY30.

Market Share & Ranking

Second-largest aluminium manufacturer in India (1,340 kt capacity); over 40% share in domestic flat-rolled products; world's largest recycler of aluminium.

Strategic Alliances

Novelis Inc. is a 100% owned subsidiary; Utkal Alumina International Ltd is a key subsidiary for raw material security.

šŸŒ External Factors

Industry Trends

Growing demand for circular solutions and recycled aluminium; US market short of can sheet by 400-500 kt.

Competitive Landscape

Intense competition in copper smelter buying terms with spot terms settling around negative 10 cents per pound.

Competitive Moat

None

Macro Economic Sensitivity

Highly sensitive to LME aluminium and copper prices and global demand for beverage packaging and automotive sectors.

Consumer Behavior

Shift toward aluminium as the material of choice for sustainable packaging and lightweight automotive applications.

Geopolitical Risks

USA-China trade tensions, CBAM impact in Europe, and tariff headwinds affecting Novelis shipments.

āš–ļø Regulatory & Governance

Industry Regulations

Compliance with SEBI Listing Regulations and ESG reporting standards; monitoring of CBAM in Europe.

Environmental Compliance

Aims to be carbon neutral and water positive by 2050; SES ESG rating of 68.4 assigned in 2025.

āš ļø Risk Analysis

Key Uncertainties

Volatility in LME prices and input costs; execution risks for the $10 billion capex plan; potential for net debt to EBITDA to exceed 2.5x.

Geographic Concentration Risk

Significant revenue concentration in the US and Europe via Novelis (>45% EBITDA) and India.

Third Party Dependencies

Dependency on global copper concentrate suppliers and aluminium scrap markets.

Technology Obsolescence Risk

Focus on 'operational excellence by design' and digital transformation to maintain lowest-cost producer status.

Credit & Counterparty Risk

Strong liquidity with INR 21,800 Cr in liquid investments supports counterparty risk management.