NTPC - NTPC

📊 NSE: NTPC 🏢 Power Generation And Supply 📅 Last Updated: 12/14/2025 10:38

💰 Financial Performance

Revenue Growth by Segment

Consolidated operating income grew 5.2% from INR 1,78,012.4 Cr in FY2024 to INR 1,87,293.3 Cr in FY2025. Standalone total income for H1 FY26 was INR 84,022 Cr, a 2.6% decline from INR 86,298 Cr in H1 FY25 due to subdued demand. Subsidiary profits grew 33% to INR 1,805 Cr in H1 FY26, while JV profit share dipped 5.8% to INR 1,059 Cr.

Geographic Revenue Split

Primarily domestic (India) operations with 1.32 GW of international capacity as of March 2025. Domestic revenue is diversified across states through long-term PPAs with state distribution utilities (discoms).

Profitability Margins

Consolidated PAT margin improved from 11.1% in FY2024 to 11.6% in FY2025, reaching 12.0% in Q1 FY2026. This margin expansion is driven by higher operational efficiencies and the cost-plus tariff structure which ensures a 15.5% post-tax return on equity.

EBITDA Margin

Consolidated EBITDA margin (OPBDIT/OI) was 29.5% in FY2025, up from 28.8% in FY2024, representing an 8.4% YoY increase in absolute EBITDA to INR 54,128 Cr. Q1 FY2026 margin stood at 26.7%.

Capital Expenditure

Planned annual capex of INR 40,000-45,000 Cr in FY2026, increasing to INR 70,000-80,000 Cr annually for FY2027 and FY2028. Total estimated capex requirement is INR 7,00,000 Cr by 2032 to reach capacity targets.

Credit Rating & Borrowing

Maintains [ICRA]AAA (Stable), CARE AAA (Stable), and CRISIL AAA (Stable) ratings. Borrowing costs are minimized by Maharatna status and 51.1% GoI ownership, allowing access to low-cost domestic and international debt markets with a DSCR expected to remain above 1.30-1.40x.

⚙️ Operational Drivers

Raw Materials

Thermal coal is the primary raw material, accounting for the majority of generation costs. Captive coal production contributed 16.76% (21.63 MMT) of total receipts in H1 FY26.

Import Sources

Sourced primarily from domestic mines in India, specifically from states where Coal India subsidiaries operate and NTPC's own 9 captive coal blocks.

Key Suppliers

Coal India Limited (CIL) and its subsidiaries are the primary suppliers under long-term Fuel Supply Agreements (FSAs). Logistics are managed via an MoU with Indian Railways for rake prioritization.

Capacity Expansion

Current installed capacity is 85,181 MW as of December 2025. Planned expansion to 149 GW by 2032 and 244 GW by 2037. Currently, 33 GW is under construction (17 GW coal, 2 GW hydro, 14 GW renewable).

Raw Material Costs

Captive coal production increased 35% from 34 MMT in FY24 to 46 MMT in FY25, reducing reliance on external market-priced coal. Captive mines have a peak rated capacity of 91.6 MMTPA.

Manufacturing Efficiency

Thermal plant availability factor (PAF) was 93% in Q1 FY26. Coal and gas plants reported 89.95% and 93.14% PAF respectively in FY25, both exceeding mandated normative levels for full cost recovery.

Logistics & Distribution

Distribution is handled through the national grid; NTPC's bargaining power is supported by its 24% share of India's total power generation.

📈 Strategic Growth

Expected Growth Rate

8-10%

Growth Strategy

Aggressive capacity addition targeting 149 GW by 2032 through a mix of 17 GW coal and 14 GW renewable projects currently under construction. Strategy includes foraying into nuclear energy with NPCIL, energy storage, green chemicals, and international expansion. Renewable capacity is targeted to reach 60 GW by 2032 via NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL).

Products & Services

Bulk electricity supply (Thermal, Hydro, Solar, Wind), consultancy services, power trading, and coal mining.

Brand Portfolio

NTPC, NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL), THDC India Limited, NEEPCO.

New Products/Services

Expansion into Nuclear power, Green Hydrogen, and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) to diversify the 84% thermal-heavy portfolio.

Market Expansion

Targeting 149 GW capacity by 2032 with a focus on renewable energy (NGEL) and nuclear sectors to meet India's growing peak demand.

Market Share & Ranking

Ranked #1 in India; accounts for ~17% of installed capacity and ~24% of total electricity generation.

Strategic Alliances

Joint Venture with NPCIL for nuclear power; acquisition of Ayana Renewable Power through NGEL; Tripartite Agreement with GoI, RBI, and State Governments for payment security.

🌍 External Factors

Industry Trends

The industry is shifting toward renewables and decarbonization. NTPC is positioning itself by targeting 60 GW of RE by 2032 and exploring green chemicals, while maintaining thermal dominance to provide base-load power.

Competitive Landscape

Dominant leader in thermal; faces increasing competition in renewable energy from private players like Adani Green and Tata Power in tariff-based competitive bidding.

Competitive Moat

Moat consists of 'Maharatna' status, massive scale (85 GW), and the Tripartite Payment Security Mechanism. These are highly sustainable due to NTPC's strategic importance to India's energy security.

Macro Economic Sensitivity

Highly sensitive to national industrial activity and GDP growth which drives power demand. H1 FY26 saw a 2.6% standalone income dip due to subdued demand.

Consumer Behavior

Increasing peak demand in India necessitates NTPC's shift toward pumped storage (Tehri PSP 250 MW Unit III) and energy storage solutions.

Geopolitical Risks

Minimal direct impact as operations are primarily domestic, though global coal prices can influence the cost of imported coal if domestic supply falls short.

⚖️ Regulatory & Governance

Industry Regulations

Governed by CERC Tariff Regulations 2024-2029, which are viewed as net positive due to unchanged RoE and increased incentives for off-peak power generation.

Environmental Compliance

Undertakes large-scale tree plantation and water conservation. Focus on ESG management to improve stakeholder engagement and meet tightening emission norms for thermal plants.

Taxation Policy Impact

Tariff structure allows for a 15.5% post-tax return on equity, effectively passing through tax costs to consumers under CERC norms.

Legal Contingencies

Fixed cost under-recoveries were INR 625 Cr as of September 2025, expected to reduce to INR 250 Cr by year-end. No specific major litigation values disclosed.